With the Oscars ceremony right around the corner, when would be a better time to look at the nominees and speculate about who is most likely to win.
As this awards season has been packed with numerous magnificent films, the race for the golden statue has been massively intriguing to watch. While in some categories, the same names have been winning over and over again, other wins have changed from award to award.
So who’s going to take the prize?
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Austin Butler - Elvis
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy - Living
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
While Bill Nighy and Paul Mescal delivered admirable performances in Living and Aftersun, Colin Farrell, Austin Butler, and Brendan Fraser are the biggest competitors for the award. Yet, while Farrell won a Golden Globe for his performance in the comedy/musical category, since then, the rivalry has shifted to Butler and Fraser. For his performance as Elvis Presley, Butler won a BAFTA and a Golden Globe. However, that win might be debatable since Fraser’s shaky past with the HFPA (the organization in charge of the Golden Globes) caused him to skip the ceremony. On the other hand, Fraser won the Critics’ Choice award and the SAG award. So who’s going to take the Oscar?
It is no secret that the Academy loves biopics. Over the past couple of years, there were multiple biopic wins in the Best Actor category, including Rami Malek, Mathew McConaughey and Eddie Redmayne. However, is the universal love of biopics enough to secure Butler the win? While it typically could have been, Hollywood also adores comeback stories, increasing Fraser’s chance of winning. Moreover, as Butler’s career is just beginning to prosper, the Academy might withhold the win from him, leaving him the chance to win it in the future. Thus, I predict Brendan Fraser to secure the win.
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Ana De Armas - Blonde
Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
Michelle Williams - The Fablemans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
The contest in the Best Actress category is undeniably between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Both actresses showcased the extent of their acting skills in Tár and Everything Everywhere All At Once, gaining the admiration of moviegoers. But who is more likely to win? With both receiving a Golden Globe as well as Blanchett winning the BAFTA, and Yeoh receiving the SAGA, the call is incredibly close. Yet, I predict the win will go to Michelle Yeoh. Though Blanchett’s performance as Lydia Tár was spectacular, she has already won two Oscars, and the chances of receiving three are minuscule (only seven actors in history have achieved this). Moreover, if Yeoh received an Oscar, it would be a historical and cultural win for the Asian community.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry - Castaway
Judd Hirsch - The Fablemans
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
As the Best Supporting Actor category is pretty straightforward, I predict that Ke Huy Quan will leave the ceremony victorious. Winning all the major awards, including the BAFTA, SAGA, Critics’ Choice Award, and a Golden Globe, Quan’s performance as Waymond Wang had an undeniable impact on the audience as well as the voters. Like Fraser, he has a touching comeback story that, along with his masterful acting skills in Everything Everywhere All At Once, would make him a winner in the Academy’s eyes as it has already made him the winner in the eyes of the general public.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jaime Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau - The Whale
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Best Supporting Actress category is somewhat trickier to predict, as the awards season presented multiple winners. Angela Bassett was the frontrunner at the beginning of the season, winning the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards. However, she was unsuccessful at the BAFTAs and the SAG awards - those wins went to Kerry Condon and Jaime Lee Curtis, respectively. In particular, Curtis’ victory has led countless people to think that she will be a winner at the Oscars. Is that necessarily true? While Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once was strong, Stephanie Hsu’s performance was extraordinary and more significant to the plot. Unfortunately, her performance went under the radar by most award voters and ceremonies. Thus, I believe the decision will be between Condon and Bassett, with Bassett taking the golden statue. Why? Though the Black Panther sequel didn’t live up to its predecessor, Bassett’s performance was praised by critics, being the highlight of the film. So, will Angela Bassett do the thing? We’ll see soon as this category might present the most surprising winner of the night.
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Todd Field - Tár
Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fablemans
In the Best Director category, the winner may either win for tradition, or for bringing something new to cinema. Therefore, this presents Spielberg and the Daniels at the forefront of the race. With Spielberg winning a Golden Globe and the Daniels acquiring a Critics’ Choice award, either could win. However, as Spielberg has already received three Oscars, the Daniels are likely to receive the award. Their win could also mean a lot for the industry for the experimental techniques and ideas Everything Everywhere All at Once presents.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Banshees of Inisherin
Triangle of Sadness
Many believe that Everything Everywhere All at Once will beat other films in the Best Picture category. But does it stand a chance amongst the other contenders? While winning the Critics’ Choice award and the SAG award for best Cast in a Motion Picture, it didn’t win at the Golden Globes or BAFTAs. Instead, All Quiet on the Western Front dominated the BAFTAs, while The Fablemans and The Banshees of Inisherin received Golden Globes. These films have the highest chance of winning - but who will take the prize? While nothing is certain in this category, I agree with the general crowd and think Everything Everywhere All at Once will sweep the award. With 11 nominations, the Academy seems to enjoy the film, and though its comedic nature does not necessarily align with the ‘norm’ for an Oscar winner, its story is impeccably compelling and heart-wrenching. However, it wouldn’t be too surprising if the Academy chose a more ‘traditional’ film like The Fablemans or All Quiet on the Western Front.
The Oscars 2023 will take place on the 13th of March
Edited by Lydia Leung, Film and TV Editor